Moderna revises 2025 revenue forecast down by $1B, stock tanks by 20%.
Nobody is shocked even more....
Just as I published my report on Moderna RSV fail yesterday, more news on this topic appeared in the mainstream press, so I felt that’s too important to ignore and wrote this follow up post. $MRNA was down 20% on Monday afternoon, trading at $33.75 per share on some continued “bad” news. By bad, I mean very good news indicating nobody is buying Moderna’s bullshit anymore, not even the mainstream.
Here is a summary from the mainstream pharma source Enpoints News, with my comments, emphasis added:
Moderna is slashing its 2025 revenue estimate by $1 billion and expanding cost-cutting measures as it continues to struggle with a slow RSV launch and a shaky Covid-19 vaccine market.
Executives are now expecting $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in 2025 sales, down from the company’s September projections of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren called the magnitude of that change “frankly unexpected” but “appropriately conservative” in a note to investors on Monday. Most of that revenue is expected to come in the second half of the year, due to Covid and RSV vaccine sales, Moderna said.
I must say, that a “revenue guidance” +/-$1B(!!!), i.e. +/-60% (!!!) is absolutely crazy for a publicly traded company. I have no idea how they get away with this on Wall Street where analysts would typically crucify an exec who is off by 5% from guidance on revenue, but hey, SEC rules be damned! As we previously discussed, Moderna is not a real business but a front for DARPA/NIH/Congress leaches, so it seems they are allowed to scam the public shareholders.
The announcement comes ahead of Moderna’s full-year earnings report, and a week after CEO Stéphane Bancel lamented a “contraction” in the US RSV market and a decline in Moderna’s share of the Covid vaccine market in the company’s annual letter to shareholders.
“We were also too optimistic about our ability to break into the market given the headwinds from a midyear approval and launch,” Bancel wrote last week about the company’s RSV launch. “We are taking those learnings to heart and going forward, we will not include revenue from products in their launch year in our financial framework.”
So, given that they had to revise the revenue down by $1B, next time, they are just not going to do any revenue forecast for new products. Take that, Wall Street!
On Monday, the company cited “additional competitive pressure” in the Covid market and a potential reduction in vaccination rates as two of the factors that will likely impact its bottom line in 2025. Moderna said one of its three key priorities is “reducing costs across our business.”
While Bancel previously laid out plans to cut annual spending on R&D by $1.1 billion by 2027, the company said Monday that it now plans to reduce costs across a range of areas by $1 billion in 2025, plus an additional $500 million in reductions in 2026.
Oops, big layoffs are coming… mRNA miracle is over…
On a related topic, Resilience, the CIA and Scott Gottlieb- affiliated “real” mRNA manufacturer, is also laying off employees across its facilities:
National Resilience is laying off 120 staffers from its gene therapy facility in North Carolina, only a month after the San Diego-headquartered CDMO shrunk its headcount in Florida. […]
Resilience has seven other facilities in North America. The CDMO previously laid off more than 105 staffers from its site in Alachua, FL, on the same day as new CEO William Marth took charge, replacing his predecessor Rahul Singhvi. In February 2023, Resilience also cut around 213 employees from its manufacturing facility in Allston, MA.
Back to Moderna - they have another imaginary made-up “viral” illness to vaccinate for, cytomegalovirus (CMV). According to Moderna, CMV is is “type of a herpes virus”. But its future is uncertain now:
Uncertainty in CMV
Analysts also focused their attention on cytomegalovirus, a key program for Moderna that executives have previously said could be a $2 billion to $5 billion potential opportunity.
Were they planning to elect Kamala and announce an international emergency of herpes? That would make a lot of sense…
Moderna was hoping that an interim analysis would establish early efficacy in its Phase 3 CMV study. But on Monday, it said that early efficacy criteria were not met at the initial analysis, according to a data safety monitoring board. The study remains ongoing and blinded, and final efficacy data are expected this year.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee speculated in a note to investors that the announcement “implies risk to the readout as we stated previously and may not hit or may not be at the 70-80% vaccine efficacy docs would like to see.”
Early signs of dementia from Jeffries analyst are evident (might be long covid…) The CMV program was in development by Moderna around 2015-2017, and it failed. So why is it news that it is failing again now?
The data from Moderna’s previous failed CMV product was fraudulently included in the Moderna’s covid shot preclinical data package. Fraudulently, because it is a completely different product, or so they admit NOW. However in 2020, it was “the same as Moderna’s covid shot” in the eyes of the FDA for purposes of lying to the public and mass poisoning everyone with “science”. They are, in fact, very different products, at least based on their own claims. Quoting from FOIAed Moderna documentation for covid shots: “Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a type of herpes virus. mRNA-1647 is a novel mRNA-based CMV vaccine that contains 6 distinct mRNA sequences. These mRNA sequences are combined at a target mass ratio of 1:1:1:1:1:1 in a mixture of 4 lipids (SM-102, PEG2000-DMG, cholesterol, and DSPC) and formulated in 93 mM Tris, 60 mM NaCl, and 7% PG456. The biodistribution of mRNA-1647 was evaluated in a non-Good Laboratory Practice (GLP), single-dose, intramuscular (IM) injection study in Sprague Dawley rats.”
Yes, it was definitely a “non-good” study… The biodistribution study showed that the injection reaches every organ in the body, accumulates in liver, adrenals, eyes, brain, ovaries, testes, etc.
This is just a couple of snapshots from the documentation that I have for the mRNA-1647 (the CMV product) - in all tissues measured (except the kidney), mRNA was detected in significant qualities, and it was NOT observed as clearing (going to zero) before the study was terminated:
etc, etc.
I reported on the Moderna’s preclinical package fraud over a year ago:
Art for today: from my sketchbook, watercolor.
Poor Moderna. I wish I could give them a booster.
This company should not even exist.